Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Global slowdown ahead?

New York, 3 August 2010—In the third quarter issue of the Global Economic Outlook, Deloitte Research examines the current economic environment and, in particular, the strength and sustainability of growth in the global markets.

Highlights of the Q3 issue:

Examines the difference of opinion between Europe and U.S. policymakers on the role of fiscal policy in the economic recovery and the rate at which deficits should be reduced in order to improve economic performance of the markets.
The weak job and housing markets of the U.S. economy point to a disappointing economic recovery so far, but some positive signs remain. Deloitte Research believes the U.S. economy will likely continue to grow and avoid a double-dip.
Although China continues to grow rapidly, several factors could affect the sustainability of this growth, including consumer price inflation, property prices, labor unrest, and exchange rate policy.
Brazil is experiencing strong consumer-led economic growth, although inflation is higher than desired. In the long term, Brazil’s fortunes will likely depend on a mix of good policy and a strong global economy.
The recovery in Europe is on track. Economic activity has rebounded faster than expected, spurred on by a weaker currency and fast-growing external demand. Against international pressure to continue stimulating domestic demand, politicians are working to bring spending under control, which should help the Eurozone sustain growth in the long-term.
In Russia, economic activity has picked up in recent months, fueled by external demand for commodity exports and a recovery in domestic demand. However, Russia’s reliance on the energy sector remains a key macroeconomic risk, weighing on the country's long-term growth prospects.
Japan’s economy is advancing faster than anticipated, with this improvement triggering an upward revision of growth forecasts. However, Japan’s continuing dependence on exports and weak domestic demand means that growth at current levels are likely not sustainable.
The United Kingdom is switching from a period of growth driven by government and the consumer, to one led by exports, capital spending, and industrial output. Fiscal tightening is likely to slow the recovery, at least in the short term. However, a more aggressive plan for fiscal consolidation has helped to boost the UK’s credibility with bond investors and the ratings agencies. The most likely outlook remains a sluggish and erratic, but continuing, recovery.
Higher than anticipated growth in the manufacturing, mining, and agricultural sectors heightened the euphoria around India’s resilience against the global economic downturn. Much of India’s near-term economic fortunes will depend on the monsoons. Less rainfall than expected would negatively impact the agricultural sector, which accounts for 15 percent of the country’s national income, and lead to higher inflation.

Attributed to Ira Kalish, Director of Global Economics, Deloitte Research, part of Deloitte Services LP in the United States

“A global economic recovery continues to advance, but the strength of this growth is uncertain in the world’s biggest markets: the United States, Europe, and China. While there have been a number of positive indications that markets worldwide are growing, until these largest economies attain sustainable growth, the strength and stamina of the global recovery will remain questionable.”

Download the full report here.o